finished running

_build/html/08_WinningestMethods/lightgbm_jena_forecasting.html

@@ -900,53 +900,7 @@
 </div>
 </div>
 <div class="cell_output docutils container">
-<div class="output traceback highlight-ipythontb notranslate"><div class="highlight"><pre><span></span><span class="gt">---------------------------------------------------------------------------</span>
-<span class="ne">OSError</span><span class="g g-Whitespace">                                   </span>Traceback (most recent call last)
-<span class="o">&lt;</span><span class="n">ipython</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="nb">input</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">8</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">f986c650d534</span><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="ow">in</span> <span class="o">&lt;</span><span class="n">module</span><span class="o">&gt;</span>
-<span class="ne">----&gt; </span><span class="mi">1</span> <span class="kn">import</span> <span class="nn">lightgbm</span> <span class="k">as</span> <span class="nn">lgb</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">      </span><span class="mi">2</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">      </span><span class="mi">3</span> <span class="n">model</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">lgb</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">LGBMRegressor</span><span class="p">()</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">      </span><span class="mi">4</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">      </span><span class="mi">5</span> <span class="n">model</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">fit</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">train_x</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">train_y</span><span class="p">,</span>
-
-<span class="o">~/</span><span class="n">opt</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">anaconda3</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">envs</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">atsa</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">lib</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">python3</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="mi">7</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">site</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">packages</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">lightgbm</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="fm">__init__</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">py</span> <span class="ow">in</span> <span class="o">&lt;</span><span class="n">module</span><span class="o">&gt;</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">      </span><span class="mi">6</span> <span class="kn">from</span> <span class="nn">__future__</span> <span class="kn">import</span> <span class="n">absolute_import</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">      </span><span class="mi">7</span> 
-<span class="ne">----&gt; </span><span class="mi">8</span> <span class="kn">from</span> <span class="nn">.basic</span> <span class="kn">import</span> <span class="n">Booster</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">Dataset</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">      </span><span class="mi">9</span> <span class="kn">from</span> <span class="nn">.callback</span> <span class="kn">import</span> <span class="p">(</span><span class="n">early_stopping</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">print_evaluation</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">record_evaluation</span><span class="p">,</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">10</span>                        <span class="n">reset_parameter</span><span class="p">)</span>
-
-<span class="o">~/</span><span class="n">opt</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">anaconda3</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">envs</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">atsa</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">lib</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">python3</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="mi">7</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">site</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">packages</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">lightgbm</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">basic</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">py</span> <span class="ow">in</span> <span class="o">&lt;</span><span class="n">module</span><span class="o">&gt;</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">41</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">42</span> 
-<span class="ne">---&gt; </span><span class="mi">43</span> <span class="n">_LIB</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">_load_lib</span><span class="p">()</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">44</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">45</span> 
-
-<span class="nn">~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/lightgbm/basic.py</span> in <span class="ni">_load_lib</span><span class="nt">()</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">32</span>     <span class="k">if</span> <span class="nb">len</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">lib_path</span><span class="p">)</span> <span class="o">==</span> <span class="mi">0</span><span class="p">:</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">33</span>         <span class="k">return</span> <span class="kc">None</span>
-<span class="ne">---&gt; </span><span class="mi">34</span>     <span class="n">lib</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">ctypes</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">cdll</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">LoadLibrary</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">lib_path</span><span class="p">[</span><span class="mi">0</span><span class="p">])</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">35</span>     <span class="n">lib</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">LGBM_GetLastError</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">restype</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">ctypes</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">c_char_p</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">36</span>     <span class="n">callback</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">ctypes</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">CFUNCTYPE</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="kc">None</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">ctypes</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">c_char_p</span><span class="p">)</span>
-
-<span class="nn">~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/ctypes/__init__.py</span> in <span class="ni">LoadLibrary</span><span class="nt">(self, name)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">440</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">441</span>     <span class="k">def</span> <span class="nf">LoadLibrary</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="bp">self</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">name</span><span class="p">):</span>
-<span class="ne">--&gt; </span><span class="mi">442</span>         <span class="k">return</span> <span class="bp">self</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">_dlltype</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">name</span><span class="p">)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">443</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">444</span> <span class="n">cdll</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">LibraryLoader</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">CDLL</span><span class="p">)</span>
-
-<span class="nn">~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/ctypes/__init__.py</span> in <span class="ni">__init__</span><span class="nt">(self, name, mode, handle, use_errno, use_last_error)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">362</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">363</span>         <span class="k">if</span> <span class="n">handle</span> <span class="ow">is</span> <span class="kc">None</span><span class="p">:</span>
-<span class="ne">--&gt; </span><span class="mi">364</span>             <span class="bp">self</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">_handle</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">_dlopen</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="bp">self</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">_name</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">mode</span><span class="p">)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">365</span>         <span class="k">else</span><span class="p">:</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">366</span>             <span class="bp">self</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">_handle</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">handle</span>
-
-<span class="ne">OSError</span>: dlopen(/Users/prince.javier/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/lightgbm/lib_lightgbm.so, 6): Library not loaded: /usr/local/opt/libomp/lib/libomp.dylib
-  <span class="n">Referenced</span> <span class="n">from</span><span class="p">:</span> <span class="o">/</span><span class="n">Users</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">prince</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">javier</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">opt</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">anaconda3</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">envs</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">atsa</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">lib</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">python3</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="mi">7</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">site</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">packages</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">lightgbm</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">lib_lightgbm</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">so</span>
-  <span class="n">Reason</span><span class="p">:</span> <span class="n">image</span> <span class="ow">not</span> <span class="n">found</span>
+<div class="output text_plain highlight-myst-ansi notranslate"><div class="highlight"><pre><span></span>LGBMRegressor()
 </pre></div>
 </div>
 </div>

_build/html/08_WinningestMethods/lightgbm_m5_forecasting.html

@@ -426,69 +426,6 @@
 </pre></div>
 </div>
 </div>
-<div class="cell_output docutils container">
-<div class="output traceback highlight-ipythontb notranslate"><div class="highlight"><pre><span></span><span class="gt">---------------------------------------------------------------------------</span>
-<span class="ne">FileNotFoundError</span><span class="g g-Whitespace">                         </span>Traceback (most recent call last)
-<span class="o">&lt;</span><span class="n">ipython</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="nb">input</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">1</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">06</span><span class="n">bc3b6f7185</span><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="ow">in</span> <span class="o">&lt;</span><span class="n">module</span><span class="o">&gt;</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">10</span> <span class="n">date_list</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="p">[</span><span class="n">d</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">strftime</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s1">&#39;%Y-%m-</span><span class="si">%d</span><span class="s1">&#39;</span><span class="p">)</span> <span class="k">for</span> <span class="n">d</span> <span class="ow">in</span> <span class="n">pd</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">date_range</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">start</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="s1">&#39;2011-01-29&#39;</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">end</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="s1">&#39;2016-04-24&#39;</span><span class="p">)]</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">11</span> 
-<span class="ne">---&gt; </span><span class="mi">12</span> <span class="n">df_calendar</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">pd</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">read_csv</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s1">&#39;../data/m5/calendar.csv&#39;</span><span class="p">)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">13</span> <span class="n">df_price</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">pd</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">read_csv</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s1">&#39;../data/m5/sell_prices.csv&#39;</span><span class="p">)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">14</span> <span class="n">df_sales</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">pd</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">read_csv</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s1">&#39;../data/m5/sales_train_validation.csv&#39;</span><span class="p">)</span>
-
-<span class="nn">~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/pandas/io/parsers.py</span> in <span class="ni">read_csv</span><span class="nt">(filepath_or_buffer, sep, delimiter, header, names, index_col, usecols, squeeze, prefix, mangle_dupe_cols, dtype, engine, converters, true_values, false_values, skipinitialspace, skiprows, skipfooter, nrows, na_values, keep_default_na, na_filter, verbose, skip_blank_lines, parse_dates, infer_datetime_format, keep_date_col, date_parser, dayfirst, cache_dates, iterator, chunksize, compression, thousands, decimal, lineterminator, quotechar, quoting, doublequote, escapechar, comment, encoding, dialect, error_bad_lines, warn_bad_lines, delim_whitespace, low_memory, memory_map, float_precision, storage_options)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">608</span>     <span class="n">kwds</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">update</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">kwds_defaults</span><span class="p">)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">609</span> 
-<span class="ne">--&gt; </span><span class="mi">610</span>     <span class="k">return</span> <span class="n">_read</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">filepath_or_buffer</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">kwds</span><span class="p">)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">611</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">612</span> 
-
-<span class="nn">~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/pandas/io/parsers.py</span> in <span class="ni">_read</span><span class="nt">(filepath_or_buffer, kwds)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">460</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">461</span>     <span class="c1"># Create the parser.</span>
-<span class="ne">--&gt; </span><span class="mi">462</span>     <span class="n">parser</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">TextFileReader</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">filepath_or_buffer</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="o">**</span><span class="n">kwds</span><span class="p">)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">463</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">464</span>     <span class="k">if</span> <span class="n">chunksize</span> <span class="ow">or</span> <span class="n">iterator</span><span class="p">:</span>
-
-<span class="nn">~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/pandas/io/parsers.py</span> in <span class="ni">__init__</span><span class="nt">(self, f, engine, **kwds)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">817</span>             <span class="bp">self</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">options</span><span class="p">[</span><span class="s2">&quot;has_index_names&quot;</span><span class="p">]</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">kwds</span><span class="p">[</span><span class="s2">&quot;has_index_names&quot;</span><span class="p">]</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">818</span> 
-<span class="ne">--&gt; </span><span class="mi">819</span>         <span class="bp">self</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">_engine</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="bp">self</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">_make_engine</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="bp">self</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">engine</span><span class="p">)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">820</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">821</span>     <span class="k">def</span> <span class="nf">close</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="bp">self</span><span class="p">):</span>
-
-<span class="nn">~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/pandas/io/parsers.py</span> in <span class="ni">_make_engine</span><span class="nt">(self, engine)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">   </span><span class="mi">1048</span>             <span class="p">)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">   </span><span class="mi">1049</span>         <span class="c1"># error: Too many arguments for &quot;ParserBase&quot;</span>
-<span class="ne">-&gt; </span><span class="mi">1050</span>         <span class="k">return</span> <span class="n">mapping</span><span class="p">[</span><span class="n">engine</span><span class="p">](</span><span class="bp">self</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">f</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="o">**</span><span class="bp">self</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">options</span><span class="p">)</span>  <span class="c1"># type: ignore[call-arg]</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">   </span><span class="mi">1051</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">   </span><span class="mi">1052</span>     <span class="k">def</span> <span class="nf">_failover_to_python</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="bp">self</span><span class="p">):</span>
-
-<span class="nn">~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/pandas/io/parsers.py</span> in <span class="ni">__init__</span><span class="nt">(self, src, **kwds)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">   </span><span class="mi">1865</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">   </span><span class="mi">1866</span>         <span class="c1"># open handles</span>
-<span class="ne">-&gt; </span><span class="mi">1867</span>         <span class="bp">self</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">_open_handles</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">src</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">kwds</span><span class="p">)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">   </span><span class="mi">1868</span>         <span class="k">assert</span> <span class="bp">self</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">handles</span> <span class="ow">is</span> <span class="ow">not</span> <span class="kc">None</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">   </span><span class="mi">1869</span>         <span class="k">for</span> <span class="n">key</span> <span class="ow">in</span> <span class="p">(</span><span class="s2">&quot;storage_options&quot;</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="s2">&quot;encoding&quot;</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="s2">&quot;memory_map&quot;</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="s2">&quot;compression&quot;</span><span class="p">):</span>
-
-<span class="nn">~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/pandas/io/parsers.py</span> in <span class="ni">_open_handles</span><span class="nt">(self, src, kwds)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">   </span><span class="mi">1366</span>             <span class="n">compression</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="n">kwds</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">get</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s2">&quot;compression&quot;</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="kc">None</span><span class="p">),</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">   </span><span class="mi">1367</span>             <span class="n">memory_map</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="n">kwds</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">get</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s2">&quot;memory_map&quot;</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="kc">False</span><span class="p">),</span>
-<span class="ne">-&gt; </span><span class="mi">1368</span>             <span class="n">storage_options</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="n">kwds</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">get</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s2">&quot;storage_options&quot;</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="kc">None</span><span class="p">),</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">   </span><span class="mi">1369</span>         <span class="p">)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">   </span><span class="mi">1370</span> 
-
-<span class="nn">~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/pandas/io/common.py</span> in <span class="ni">get_handle</span><span class="nt">(path_or_buf, mode, encoding, compression, memory_map, is_text, errors, storage_options)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">645</span>                 <span class="n">encoding</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="n">ioargs</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">encoding</span><span class="p">,</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">646</span>                 <span class="n">errors</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="n">errors</span><span class="p">,</span>
-<span class="ne">--&gt; </span><span class="mi">647</span>                 <span class="n">newline</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="s2">&quot;&quot;</span><span class="p">,</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">648</span>             <span class="p">)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">649</span>         <span class="k">else</span><span class="p">:</span>
-
-<span class="ne">FileNotFoundError</span>: [Errno 2] No such file or directory: &#39;../data/m5/calendar.csv&#39;
-</pre></div>
-</div>
-</div>
 </div>
 <div class="cell docutils container">
 <div class="cell_input docutils container">
@@ -1942,17 +1879,6 @@ s365-Naive MAE: 247.9286
 </pre></div>
 </div>
 </div>
-<div class="cell_output docutils container">
-<div class="output stream highlight-myst-ansi notranslate"><div class="highlight"><pre><span></span>  7 --- MAE: -333.105 (21.291)
- 30 --- MAE: -307.008 (21.648)
-180 --- MAE: -291.474 (22.537)
-365 --- MAE: -275.644 (17.895)
-545 --- MAE: -277.332 (20.982)
-730 --- MAE: -275.664 (23.006)
-</pre></div>
-</div>
-<img alt="../_images/lightgbm_m5_forecasting_35_1.png" src="../_images/lightgbm_m5_forecasting_35_1.png" />
-</div>
 </div>
 </div>
 </div>

_build/html/08_WinningestMethods/lightgbm_m5_tuning.html

@@ -375,57 +375,6 @@
 </pre></div>
 </div>
 </div>
-<div class="cell_output docutils container">
-<div class="output traceback highlight-ipythontb notranslate"><div class="highlight"><pre><span></span><span class="gt">---------------------------------------------------------------------------</span>
-<span class="ne">OSError</span><span class="g g-Whitespace">                                   </span>Traceback (most recent call last)
-<span class="o">&lt;</span><span class="n">ipython</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="nb">input</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">1</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">f8af59ced7b0</span><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="ow">in</span> <span class="o">&lt;</span><span class="n">module</span><span class="o">&gt;</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">      </span><span class="mi">2</span> <span class="kn">import</span> <span class="nn">pandas</span> <span class="k">as</span> <span class="nn">pd</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">      </span><span class="mi">3</span> <span class="kn">import</span> <span class="nn">matplotlib.pyplot</span> <span class="k">as</span> <span class="nn">plt</span>
-<span class="ne">----&gt; </span><span class="mi">4</span> <span class="kn">import</span> <span class="nn">lightgbm</span> <span class="k">as</span> <span class="nn">lgb</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">      </span><span class="mi">5</span> <span class="kn">from</span> <span class="nn">sklearn.model_selection</span> <span class="kn">import</span> <span class="n">cross_val_score</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">      </span><span class="mi">6</span> <span class="kn">from</span> <span class="nn">sklearn.model_selection</span> <span class="kn">import</span> <span class="n">RepeatedKFold</span>
-
-<span class="o">~/</span><span class="n">opt</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">anaconda3</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">envs</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">atsa</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">lib</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">python3</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="mi">7</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">site</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">packages</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">lightgbm</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="fm">__init__</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">py</span> <span class="ow">in</span> <span class="o">&lt;</span><span class="n">module</span><span class="o">&gt;</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">      </span><span class="mi">6</span> <span class="kn">from</span> <span class="nn">__future__</span> <span class="kn">import</span> <span class="n">absolute_import</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">      </span><span class="mi">7</span> 
-<span class="ne">----&gt; </span><span class="mi">8</span> <span class="kn">from</span> <span class="nn">.basic</span> <span class="kn">import</span> <span class="n">Booster</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">Dataset</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">      </span><span class="mi">9</span> <span class="kn">from</span> <span class="nn">.callback</span> <span class="kn">import</span> <span class="p">(</span><span class="n">early_stopping</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">print_evaluation</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">record_evaluation</span><span class="p">,</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">10</span>                        <span class="n">reset_parameter</span><span class="p">)</span>
-
-<span class="o">~/</span><span class="n">opt</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">anaconda3</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">envs</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">atsa</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">lib</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">python3</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="mi">7</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">site</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">packages</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">lightgbm</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">basic</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">py</span> <span class="ow">in</span> <span class="o">&lt;</span><span class="n">module</span><span class="o">&gt;</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">41</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">42</span> 
-<span class="ne">---&gt; </span><span class="mi">43</span> <span class="n">_LIB</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">_load_lib</span><span class="p">()</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">44</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">45</span> 
-
-<span class="nn">~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/lightgbm/basic.py</span> in <span class="ni">_load_lib</span><span class="nt">()</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">32</span>     <span class="k">if</span> <span class="nb">len</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">lib_path</span><span class="p">)</span> <span class="o">==</span> <span class="mi">0</span><span class="p">:</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">33</span>         <span class="k">return</span> <span class="kc">None</span>
-<span class="ne">---&gt; </span><span class="mi">34</span>     <span class="n">lib</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">ctypes</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">cdll</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">LoadLibrary</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">lib_path</span><span class="p">[</span><span class="mi">0</span><span class="p">])</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">35</span>     <span class="n">lib</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">LGBM_GetLastError</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">restype</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">ctypes</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">c_char_p</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">     </span><span class="mi">36</span>     <span class="n">callback</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">ctypes</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">CFUNCTYPE</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="kc">None</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">ctypes</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">c_char_p</span><span class="p">)</span>
-
-<span class="nn">~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/ctypes/__init__.py</span> in <span class="ni">LoadLibrary</span><span class="nt">(self, name)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">440</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">441</span>     <span class="k">def</span> <span class="nf">LoadLibrary</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="bp">self</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">name</span><span class="p">):</span>
-<span class="ne">--&gt; </span><span class="mi">442</span>         <span class="k">return</span> <span class="bp">self</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">_dlltype</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">name</span><span class="p">)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">443</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">444</span> <span class="n">cdll</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">LibraryLoader</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">CDLL</span><span class="p">)</span>
-
-<span class="nn">~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/ctypes/__init__.py</span> in <span class="ni">__init__</span><span class="nt">(self, name, mode, handle, use_errno, use_last_error)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">362</span> 
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">363</span>         <span class="k">if</span> <span class="n">handle</span> <span class="ow">is</span> <span class="kc">None</span><span class="p">:</span>
-<span class="ne">--&gt; </span><span class="mi">364</span>             <span class="bp">self</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">_handle</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">_dlopen</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="bp">self</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">_name</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">mode</span><span class="p">)</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">365</span>         <span class="k">else</span><span class="p">:</span>
-<span class="g g-Whitespace">    </span><span class="mi">366</span>             <span class="bp">self</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">_handle</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">handle</span>
-
-<span class="ne">OSError</span>: dlopen(/Users/prince.javier/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/lightgbm/lib_lightgbm.so, 6): Library not loaded: /usr/local/opt/libomp/lib/libomp.dylib
-  <span class="n">Referenced</span> <span class="n">from</span><span class="p">:</span> <span class="o">/</span><span class="n">Users</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">prince</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">javier</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">opt</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">anaconda3</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">envs</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">atsa</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">lib</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">python3</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="mi">7</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">site</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">packages</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">lightgbm</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">lib_lightgbm</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">so</span>
-  <span class="n">Reason</span><span class="p">:</span> <span class="n">image</span> <span class="ow">not</span> <span class="n">found</span>
-</pre></div>
-</div>
-</div>
 </div>
 <div class="cell docutils container">
 <div class="cell_input docutils container">
@@ -495,14 +444,11 @@ s365-Naive MAE: 247.9286
 </div>
 <div class="cell_output docutils container">
 <div class="output stream highlight-myst-ansi notranslate"><div class="highlight"><pre><span></span> 10 --- MAE: -385.639 (31.537)
- 50 --- MAE: -283.540 (21.324)
-100 --- MAE: -285.091 (21.551)
-500 --- MAE: -288.237 (21.803)
-1000 --- MAE: -288.672 (21.822)
-2000 --- MAE: -288.734 (21.844)
 </pre></div>
 </div>
-<img alt="../_images/lightgbm_m5_tuning_5_1.png" src="../_images/lightgbm_m5_tuning_5_1.png" />
+<div class="output stream highlight-myst-ansi notranslate"><div class="highlight"><pre><span></span> 50 --- MAE: -283.540 (21.324)
+</pre></div>
+</div>
 </div>
 </div>
 </div>

_build/jupyter_execute/08_WinningestMethods/lightgbm_jena_forecasting.ipynb

@@ -806,20 +806,14 @@
    },
    "outputs": [
     {
-     "ename": "OSError",
-     "evalue": "dlopen(/Users/prince.javier/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/lightgbm/lib_lightgbm.so, 6): Library not loaded: /usr/local/opt/libomp/lib/libomp.dylib\n  Referenced from: /Users/prince.javier/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/lightgbm/lib_lightgbm.so\n  Reason: image not found",
-     "output_type": "error",
-     "traceback": [
-      "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m",
-      "\u001b[0;31mOSError\u001b[0m                                   Traceback (most recent call last)",
-      "\u001b[0;32m<ipython-input-8-f986c650d534>\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36m<module>\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 1\u001b[0;31m \u001b[0;32mimport\u001b[0m \u001b[0mlightgbm\u001b[0m \u001b[0;32mas\u001b[0m \u001b[0mlgb\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[1;32m      2\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m      3\u001b[0m \u001b[0mmodel\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mlgb\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mLGBMRegressor\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m      4\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m      5\u001b[0m model.fit(train_x, train_y,\n",
-      "\u001b[0;32m~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/lightgbm/__init__.py\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36m<module>\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m      6\u001b[0m \u001b[0;32mfrom\u001b[0m \u001b[0m__future__\u001b[0m \u001b[0;32mimport\u001b[0m \u001b[0mabsolute_import\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m      7\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 8\u001b[0;31m \u001b[0;32mfrom\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mbasic\u001b[0m \u001b[0;32mimport\u001b[0m \u001b[0mBooster\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m,\u001b[0m \u001b[0mDataset\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[1;32m      9\u001b[0m from .callback import (early_stopping, print_evaluation, record_evaluation,\n\u001b[1;32m     10\u001b[0m                        reset_parameter)\n",
-      "\u001b[0;32m~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/lightgbm/basic.py\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36m<module>\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m     41\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m     42\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m---> 43\u001b[0;31m \u001b[0m_LIB\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0m_load_lib\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[1;32m     44\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m     45\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
-      "\u001b[0;32m~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/lightgbm/basic.py\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36m_load_lib\u001b[0;34m()\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m     32\u001b[0m     \u001b[0;32mif\u001b[0m \u001b[0mlen\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mlib_path\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m==\u001b[0m \u001b[0;36m0\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m:\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m     33\u001b[0m         \u001b[0;32mreturn\u001b[0m \u001b[0;32mNone\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m---> 34\u001b[0;31m     \u001b[0mlib\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mctypes\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mcdll\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mLoadLibrary\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mlib_path\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m[\u001b[0m\u001b[0;36m0\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m]\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[1;32m     35\u001b[0m     \u001b[0mlib\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mLGBM_GetLastError\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mrestype\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mctypes\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mc_char_p\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m     36\u001b[0m     \u001b[0mcallback\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mctypes\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mCFUNCTYPE\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0;32mNone\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m,\u001b[0m \u001b[0mctypes\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mc_char_p\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
-      "\u001b[0;32m~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/ctypes/__init__.py\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36mLoadLibrary\u001b[0;34m(self, name)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    440\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    441\u001b[0m     \u001b[0;32mdef\u001b[0m \u001b[0mLoadLibrary\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m,\u001b[0m \u001b[0mname\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m:\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m--> 442\u001b[0;31m         \u001b[0;32mreturn\u001b[0m \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m_dlltype\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mname\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[1;32m    443\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    444\u001b[0m \u001b[0mcdll\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mLibraryLoader\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mCDLL\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
-      "\u001b[0;32m~/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/ctypes/__init__.py\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36m__init__\u001b[0;34m(self, name, mode, handle, use_errno, use_last_error)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    362\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    363\u001b[0m         \u001b[0;32mif\u001b[0m \u001b[0mhandle\u001b[0m \u001b[0;32mis\u001b[0m \u001b[0;32mNone\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m:\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m--> 364\u001b[0;31m             \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m_handle\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0m_dlopen\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m_name\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m,\u001b[0m \u001b[0mmode\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[1;32m    365\u001b[0m         \u001b[0;32melse\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m:\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    366\u001b[0m             \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m_handle\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mhandle\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
-      "\u001b[0;31mOSError\u001b[0m: dlopen(/Users/prince.javier/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/lightgbm/lib_lightgbm.so, 6): Library not loaded: /usr/local/opt/libomp/lib/libomp.dylib\n  Referenced from: /Users/prince.javier/opt/anaconda3/envs/atsa/lib/python3.7/site-packages/lightgbm/lib_lightgbm.so\n  Reason: image not found"
-     ]
+     "data": {
+      "text/plain": [
+       "LGBMRegressor()"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 8,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
     }
    ],
    "source": [
@@ -905,7 +899,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 16,
+   "execution_count": 11,
    "metadata": {
     "scrolled": true
    },